This study, based on the PRIMES model, envisions, through 4 scenarios, a future in which the EU’s agreed climate targets are met.

Outcomes of the modelling

Read more in our infographic document here. The study document is available here.

Quick wins for the climate are possible with gas. The required technology and infrastructure are already in place to switch to gas in all sectors – heating, power generation and transport.

• Climate target: The Paris Agreement in 2015 targeted to limit global warming to below 2°C requiring a rethink of how we all use and consume energy.

• Renewable Energy Future: Gas provides the flexibility needed with an increasing share of variable renewables. When there is too little wind and sun, modern gas power generation supplies you with the electricity you need. And when there is surplus electricity, innovative power-to-gas technology provides the ideal storage as well as renewable gas. And what‘s more, in tomorrow‘s decentralised energy system micro- CHPs and fuel cells produce your own, clean, reliable heat and electricity at home – an ideal partner for rooftop solar panels.

• Gas heating: Switching to modern gas heating systems is a quick and low-cost way to reduce CO2 emissions. The energy transition start at home. Replacing a traditional oil-fired boiler with a modern gas condensing boiler would instantly reduce CO2 emissions by up to 55% – and even more with renewable gas while achieving efficiencies approaching 100%.

• Clean Power Generation: Switching from lignite to gas reduces CO2 emissions by up to 66%. Overall Europe has enough spare capacity in gas-fired generation to replace all coal-fired generation. Simply increasing the utilisation of gas-fired generation¹ from 36% to 65% would reduce CO2 emissions by approx. 300 million tonnes per year.
  (¹ KgCO2/KWh) 

• Decarbonisation of Transport: Reducing emissions and improving air quality on the road and at sea thanks to gas. The use of compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) in transport (including cars, light and heavy duty vehicles, and ships) greatly improves air quality thanks to very low emissions of NOx and particulates. Gas in transport also reduces CO2 emissions by around 25%. There is no limit to blending natural gas with renewable gas (e.g. from waste, biomass, excess electricity) driving CO2 emissions towards zero in the long term.

Creating the low-carbon energy world of the future needs new ideas: electrification is not the silver bullet. Innovative gas technologies such as power-to-gas and fuel cells, provide solutions for the challenges of the energy transition.

• Roadmap for the Energy transition: 2030: Achieve quick wins for decarbonisation with gas. 2050: Complete the energy transition.

• Flexibility: The flexibility of the system will be a key in the future. Gas is the ideal partner for balancing fluctuating renewable electricity production and demand.

• Flexible gas-fired power plants: Gas provides the flexibility which is needed with an increasing share of variable renewables. These have by far the best ramp rates of any power plants. This means they can react swiftly in periods of low renewable generation.

• Innovative technologies: Cutting-edge gas technologies, such as power-to-gas and fuel cells, provide solutions for the low-carbon energy systems of the future.

Power-to-gas is an innovative technology that converts surplus electricity into renewable gas. It is the ideal solution to store excess electricity using the existing gas infrastructure.

Fuel cells & Micro-combined heat and power (micro-CHPs) are highly efficient technologies that provide you with secure and clean energy. You can use them to produce your own heat and electricity at home, plus, you can provide surplus electricity to your local grid.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will remain an important option to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in the medium and long term.

Biogas: Creating a sustainable tomorrow with waste from today. There is no limit to blending gas with more and more biogas.

Tried and tested processes:

Biogas from food waste…

• The concept of our Energy future: Empowering customers to participate actively in a smart energy system.

• Achieving more with gas technology: Modern gas appliances have the best efficiency rankings – in heating as well as in power generation – and this technology is available already. It is the most economical way to reach the European targets for energy efficiency quickly.

• Gas power plants: Gas-fired power plants are highly efficient to provide the power you need.

• Gas Heating:

Modern gas heating systems are an efficient way to achieve the EU targets. The EU labelling highlights the efficiency of modern gas technologies. Switching from an old oil-fired boiler to a class ‘A’ gas condensing boiler increases efficiency by up to 65%. Micro-CHPs and gas heat pumps rank even better at A++.

New gas heating systems are the most economic way to meet the climate goals: With 80% of the current building stock expected to be still in place in 2050, gas heating systems will play a crucial role in this retrofitting environment. Upgrading outdated heating systems can help customers achieve quick, lasting wins between investment costs and energy savings, while requiring no additional structural changes to homes.

• Infrastructure & supplies: Gas is a highly reliable energy source due to its robust infrastructure and diverse supplies from inside and outside Europe. International gas trading is pivotal for balanced commercial relationships with Europe’s neighbouring countries.

• Benefiting from a unified European gas market: A well-functioning market is the best means to protect all customers. It brings more choice with new, innovative products to fit customers’ needs. Eastern European countries are joining this movement.

• Interconnection:  The European gas market has far superior interconnection than the power market, making the internal gas market more advanced.  Spurring the development of markets in Eastern Europe through more interconnections has brought greater correlation to Western European prices, and all the benefits of competition.

• Competition brings value to the customer: Competition between gas suppliers has increased dramatically since market liberalisation.

• Affordable energy: Gas is offering great value to customers.